Georgia vs Texas Vol.3: Historic Showdown in Athens
by Chito Chibuye
Dawgs OTL Writer/ UGA Alumnus
Georgia Welcomes Texas to Athens for the First Time
No. 5 Georgia and No. 10 Texas will lock horns in Athens, GA for the first time in the two programs’ history. UGA welcomed the Longhorns to the SEC last year by beating them at DKR 30-15, and then taking the SEC Championship out of their grasp in OT with a 22-19 victory. Both teams will look different this time around, and while the expectations around Texas have shifted, the Dawgs remain poised and focused on winning more titles — conference or otherwise.
Facts Over Feelings: The Real Story Behind the Matchup
There is no data set or stat alone that is going to magically get UGA a win on Saturday, because Texas is still a very talented team.
However, this team is not as good a team as last year’s squad, even if they still have everything in front of them. UT comes into this weekend’s matchup 7-2 with losses at OSU 14-7 and at Florida 29-21. Their best win was a home game vs. OK without John Mateer (23-6), while also having two questionable OT wins on the road vs. Kentucky (16-13) and MSST (45-38).
I’m not impressed by this Texas team, but I will give them credit for trending in the right direction.
Quarterback Showdown: Arch Manning vs. Gunner Stockton
The preseason hype on these two quarterbacks couldn’t have been more different. The media crowned Arch Heisman winner, All-American, All-SEC, National Championship MVP. Keegan mentioned several times on this platform that Arch had no game film to back that up and all the hype came off name alone. We were correct, as he will likely be none of those things in 2025. Then you’ve got good ol’ humble Gunner Stockton, the country boy from Rabun County — a guy who was thrown into the fire in 2024 and helped Georgia beat Texas, and on short notice made some plays but ultimately fell short of beating the CFP runner-up in Notre Dame. Gunner Stockton carved out one of the most decorated careers in Georgia high-school football history, blending production, leadership, and longevity in a way few quarterbacks ever have. As the 2021–22 Gatorade Georgia Player of the Year, he was a stat machine & was recognized as the state’s most complete and impactful athlete. Stockton finished his career with 177 passing touchdowns, the most ever in Georgia, and an astonishing 254 total touchdowns, a record reflecting his dual threat elite status. I’m on record saying Gunner reminds me of Russell Wilson at Wisconsin and needed to work on his pocket presence in the offseason, while the media used his tape to cast doubt and tell Dawgs fans that he was worse than Carson Beck.
Arch: 2,123 yds, 18 TD, 6 INT, 63.1 QBR (59th)
Gunner: 2,040 yds, 15 TD, 2 INT, 89.4 QBR (3rd)
Three times more interceptions and a QBR down in Antarctica — give me Stockton all day.
2024 vs. 2025: How the Teams Have Evolved
This year’s Texas team isn’t as good as the one Georgia beat twice last year, and that seems most obvious at both QB and OL positions. Like many premier programs, the Longhorns lost a lot of talent to the NFL, and last year hit their OL pretty hard — they have struggled to bounce back. Running the ball has been a major issue for them, averaging 135.3 ypg (95th), which ends up putting more pressure on a QB that hasn’t been great. Georgia has been inconsistent at stopping the run at times, but they’ve also already had success against this unit and scheme recently. Defensively, this Texas team hasn’t fallen off at all — unlike UGA. They allow 16.4 pts/game (11th) and give up only 314 yds per outing (22nd), and while they lead the SEC in rush yards allowed, they have yet to deal with an offensive unit that is buzzing like Georgia is right now. Averaging almost 200 rush yds/game (24th), 33.4 pts/game (29th), and 435.8 total yds/game (32nd), Texas has a daunting challenge on their hands on the road, where they have not been as sharp. Texas’s offense is considerably worse than last year, and their defense is the same but elite. Georgia’s offense has taken a big step forward in efficiency, and the defense has taken a step back in havoc rate.
X-Factors That Could Decide the Game
I’m not going to write a paragraph on the keys to the game this week because to me they’re obvious: establish the run, stop the run, and win the turnover battle. Instead, I want to talk about three X-factors:
1. Billy Napier
While it might seem like an irrelevant story to some, I think the recently fired Florida coach being in Athens this week is more than an old friend “just visiting.” This is a coaching family that is well-liked and respected in the state of Georgia, and one of two coaches to beat Texas this year. I’m guessing Kirby picked Billy’s brain on the topic — they are friends after all.
2. Noah Thomas
There’s probably not a player on this Georgia roster that hates burnt orange more than Thomas. As a former Texas A&M Aggie, there isn’t anybody who knows Texas and has played them every year of his career like Noah has. He has been more involved in the game plan the past couple of weeks, and if Texas prepares for Branch (which they better), expect #5 to go off!
3. Collin Simmons
This is the man who could single-handedly wreck this game for the Bulldogs. Of course, he has help in LB Anthony Hill Jr., but Simmons has shown himself to be one of the most dominant EDGE players in the country. He plays with a relentlessly high motor, and that has helped him amass eight sacks for a unit that has the second-most team sacks in the nation with 34. Fortunately for UGA, even Simmons knows that this Georgia team is one of the most physically tough in the game, and they’ve only allowed 11 sacks — tied for second-fewest in the SEC.
Conclusion: Georgia’s Edge and Score Prediction
In my honest opinion, this Georgia team, while young, might be an overall better team than the 2024 version. Mind you, that version beat a Texas squad that’s better than the 2025 iteration on the road and then again in ATL.
Now you take those ingredients and you bring them to Sanford Stadium — which will be going crazy for a night game against a team that thinks they’re the pride of the conference? Yeah, good luck with that. Texas’s best-case scenario is to force OT, where they’ve snuck out two wins this year, but I don’t see it. Dawgs on top!
Score Prediction: 27-17
