Insanity: Georgia vs Alabama SECCG Preview

by Chito Chibuye

Dawgs OTL Writer/ UGA Alumnus

People say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. If that were the case, why do we look up to sports legends like Michael Jordan, Tom Brady, Serena Williams, and Wayne Gretzky?
They are known for their successes, but also for their failures and diabolical preparation and practice to overcome those failures. Georgia will face-off against the University of Alabama in the SEC Championship (again) and ride the emotional rollercoaster this game always produces.

Round 1: Breaking Down the First Matchup

Alabama beat the University of Georgia 24-21 in Athens, Ga. during a night game in our home stadium where almost no team has had success in the last 5 years. Both teams were breaking in new starting QB’s and both defenses were tabbed to be top 3 in the SEC. UGA rushed for 227 yards and passed for only 130. The Tide amassed 280 passing yards behind then Heisman contender Ty Simpson, and 117 yards rushing. I felt like UGA was the better team going into that game, but the inability to get Bama off the field on 3rd down and failing to convert a 4th & 1 with Cash Jones instead of kicking the FG cost us the game.

Since Then: Momentum, Trends, and Playoff Stakes

Kirby and the Dawgs have rattled off 8 straight wins (6 SEC wins) to finish the regular szn 11-1 with the no. 4 spot in the CFP bracket.
DeBoer and the Tide on the other hand have been stuck in “neutral” winning a lot of tight games against inferior opponents and even losing to a good Oklahoma team in Tuscaloosa. A 3rd loss, even in an SECCG, potentially putting their playoff hopes in jeopardy as they sit at no. 9. On paper, trending, per. Vegas and even on the injury report Georgia looks like the better team, but we know this movie very well. Since 2007 Georgia is 1-9 in its last 10 vs. Alabama. 0-4 Alabama in SECCG’s and currently sits 0-2 vs. Kalen Deboer.

Keys to the Game for Georgia

To be truthful Georgia had the blueprint to win this game last go round, but made some uncharacteristic mistakes that cost us the game. The main key will be to mentally lock in and RELAX.

Run the Ball / Stop the Run

UGA will have the advantage here again. Bo Walker will be out but Chauncey Bowens is back healthy and should allow this RB room to target 200 yds rushing on the day. Stopping this Kalen Deboer offensive on the ground shouldn’t be a great feat as they have struggled in this area all year long and like to lean on Simpson. No fumbles by Frazier, time of possession keeping Bama’s offside on the sideline, and no 3rd and longs give Georgia a chance.

Third Down Conversions Will Decide Everything

Alabama converted 13 of 19 3rd down opportunities on the road in round 1. That literally can never happen again. Simpson was so locked in, national pundits wanted to give the Heisman Trophy that night. A lot of it was simple concepts that Kirby and Glenn Schumann should be ready for the 2nd time around. RBs and TEs leaking into the flats out of the backfield untouched (both starters questionable for Saturday) and the rest was Germie Bernand looking like Jamar Chase going crazy (minus the spitting)! Fortunately for UGA, the improvement of edge players Gabe Harris, Chris Cole, and Q Johnson has been obvious and will need to turn up another notch. Also the secondary which was a weakness early in the szn has turned into a strength as KJ Bolden, Demello Jones, and Ellis Robinson have been locking people up.

X-Factors: Gunner Stockton and Zachariah Branch

Even with an emphasis on the ground like the first time, Gunner Stockon and Zachariah Branch must be our X factors and take over this ball game. Gunner didn’t play bad last time around but he definitely wasn’t the aggressive player we’ve seen at times since then. 13/20 for 130 passing and 1 TD is pedestrian and 22 yds rushing will not move the needle. Gunner needs to be more confident with his reads and find his weapons when they are open. Making himself a bigger threat in the run game would be huge too whether it’s designed runs, pulling it on reads, or scrambling in man coverage it all adds up. Likewise, I expect to see Branch more involved. Colbie Young was the leading WR in the first matchup while Branch only had 3 receptions. We need Zach to have about 10 touches, whether it’s in the screen game to add an extension to the run or exploiting coverages with him. Nobody is consistently covering him in man schemes, and he will find space in any zone the Bama defense deploys, allowing our other weapons to run deep for chunk plays.

Conclusion: Can Georgia Finally Break the Alabama Curse?

Oxford dictionary defines insanity as extreme foolishness or irrationality. Given our track record against Alabama, especially in the SECCG it is irrational to pick against them. I’m one of the fans that wanted to skip the SECCG altogether, rest, and hopefully get a good seed. Good thing Kirby is the coach and I’m not, because he sounds ready for war. Call me a conspiracy theorist, but I also think the SEC would love to see both Alabama and Georgia in the payoff, I mean playoff ($$$) and both teams know it. Think back to 2021, we lose in the SECCG and win the rematch for a natty, I’ll take that everyday! The SECCG just isn’t as vital to a Natty as it used to be.

I said I was going to pick Bama next time and everything in me says take the Tide for all the reasons listed and the mental aspect of them playing for their playoff lives, but I just can’t do it. Kirby is insane, the talent on this roster is insane, so maybe I’m insane too. Go Dawgs!

Score Prediction: Georgia finally, over Alabama 27-24